March 8, 2017 – Algebris Investments published an editorial by Alberto Gallo, in which he argues against the likelihood of France leaving the EU. With anti-Euro candidate Marine Le Pen making regular appearances at the top of the polls, there is reason to worry. However, Europe has been limping along for years without breaking up. While Le Pen is the most likely candidate to enter the second round based on current polls, she actually has a very low overall chance of winning. Whoever faces off with her, whether it be Fillon or Macron, is likely to collect both the centre and centre-right vote. Even if she wins, redenomination risk remains low. For her to deliver on Frexit, she will need approval from France’s bi-cameral parliament, split between the Assemblée Nationale and the Sénat. Le Pen’s FN party currently only has 2 of the 577 deputies in the Assemblée Nationale.
- The complete article is available from Algebris Investments.