June 22, 2016 – TGCOM24 aired an interview with SEP Researcher Paolo Canofari, in which he discusses the results of the most recent Telegraph survey, which shows a 7% lead in favor of the Remain camp. Canofari argues that this data needs to be considered with extreme caution when it comes to predicting referendum results. On the one hand, there are still a good number of voters in the “undecided” category, which brings a great deal of uncertainty to the scene. Furthermore, opinion polls, in general, are also not very accurate at predicting political events. In a sense, both sides are waging a campaign of fear, with immigration concerns fueling the Leave camp and dire economic predictions by international organizations and banks fortifying Remain.
From an economic point of view, an important study is the one released by the UK Treasury, which presents both short- and medium-term estimates on the costs of Brexit. It predicts the country’s GDP decreasing by 3% in the 2 years after the referendum returns a Leave vote. The London Stock Exchange is also closing at lower values, which many experts interpret as an anticipatory investor reaction to Britain’s departure from the EU.