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P. Benigno, P. Canofari, G. Di Bartolomeo and M. Messori: Uncertainty and the Pandemic Shocks

The COVID-19 pandemic shocks are a significant source of uncertainty in several aspects. In particular, these shocks influence the landscape in which policymakers operate and create further uncertainty about policy decisions and about their effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to offer some relative measures of the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, and to discuss the impact of this uncertainty on the possible evolution of European economies during the second wave of COVID-19. Emphasis will be placed on the effectiveness of the policies implemented.


This paper was prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialogue of 19 November 2020 between ECON and the President of the European Central Bank. The original paper is available on the European Parliament’s webpage, as part of a series of papers on "Effects of Pandemic-Induced Uncertainty on Monetary Policy":

Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times.

Uncertainty and the Pandemic Shocks.WP_.pdf1.49 MB